Production declines, bismuth prices remain firm [SMM Weekly Review of Bismuth Spot Prices]

SMM News on July 4: This week, the bismuth market saw stable and firm prices. As the market entered the new H2, trading performance improved slightly, but the enthusiasm for transactions among buyers and sellers remained insufficient. However, based on some transaction prices, bismuth prices remained stable and firm. Currently, the pattern of weak supply and demand persists. Due to the ongoing shortage of raw materials, supply remains tight. The recent record-high tender selling price of a certain bismuth concentrate producer demonstrates the fierce competition for raw materials, which, to some extent, supports the market's bullish sentiment. However, as summer approaches, the expected demand side may enter the off-season. Therefore, both supply and demand are in the doldrums, which explains the sluggish trading in the market. Under the current supply-demand pattern, the market is filled with wait-and-see sentiment. Some market participants said that the current supply-demand pattern is unlikely to change completely in the short term. Unless there are other positive or negative news, the pattern of bismuth prices remaining firm or fluctuating rangebound will continue. As of the end of this week, the mainstream prices of SMM bismuth ingots were 132,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

In terms of news, according to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth production in June 2025 is expected to decrease by approximately 1.24% MoM compared to May's nationwide production. After a sudden and significant decline in bismuth production in May, the continued downward trend in production was within the expectations of many market participants. Market participants said that due to the ongoing shortage of raw materials, it is reasonable for production to stagnate or even continue to decline. From the recent competition for bismuth raw materials in the market, many bismuth raw materials were traded at high prices, indicating that the shortage of raw materials in the market has affected the normal operations of many manufacturers. From the production situation of manufacturers, some manufacturers are still in the process of equipment maintenance, and the production situation of many manufacturers shows a stable or declining trend, resulting in a continued decline in overall domestic production compared to May. From detailed data, among SMM's 24 survey respondents, 3 manufacturers saw a significant increase in production in June, while 2 manufacturers experienced a significant decline. The production of the remaining manufacturers remained relatively unchanged or increased slightly. Many market participants expect that the shortage of raw materials for bismuth manufacturers nationwide in July will be difficult to alleviate. Manufacturers are currently fiercely competing for production raw materials such as bismuth concentrate, and there is a high possibility that production will continue to be affected. The possibility of stable or continued slight decline in refined bismuth production is high, and there is also a possibility of another significant decline in production.

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